As politicians increasingly invoke Thucydides’ famous aphorism that the strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must, it has become clear that we are living through an era of renewed great-power rivalry and a splintering rules-based order. In its first year in office, the second Trump administration has effectively ruptured the post-war multilateral system the United States once built and guaranteed, forcing the European Union and its member states to make hard strategic choices about what they are prepared to defend.
With growing worldwide distrust in Trump’s America, the EU has both the opportunity and the responsibility to act decisively to safeguard and transform the institutions and character of multilateral governance. The EU’s capacity to lead, however, is uneven: it is strong in regulatory agenda-setting in some areas, but weaker where geopolitics and financing are decisive – and where US backsliding or geopolitical competition with China undercuts universal processes and internal political cohesion.
To succeed, the EU must move beyond symbolic and procedural reforms.
To succeed, the EU must move beyond symbolic and procedural reforms. Starting with policy areas like trade and climate change – which lie at the heart of its own multilateral agenda and impact the sovereignty of its members – the EU must combine normative leadership with pragmatic fixes.
Five pathways for EU leadership in an era of global disorder:
- Reframe and own the narrative to defend core values and demonstrate the practical utility of multilateral governance, particularly in health security, economic stability, and climate risk reduction. The EU’s strategic communications regarding global governance should counter scepticism by showing what works in practice.
- Enhance EU diplomatic engagement, leveraging EU institutions and member states in negotiation settings and building issue-specific coalitions with like-minded partners willing to uphold global governance systems that serve their core principles. The focus should be on key BRICS countries like Brazil, India, and South Africa, as well as other swing states of the Plural South (including Indonesia, Mexico, and Nigeria) whose influence, and population, is considerable.
- Target global governance reform to improve monitoring and defend compliance. Commission or support pilot projects in thematic areas (e.g., climate finance for loss and damage; digital standards implementation in low-income countries) to demonstrate feasibility.
- Secure predictable financing for selected organisations (for example, staff capacity and secretarial support) in areas like trade, climate, and migration governance, where the robustness of multilateralism and the EU’s strategic interests are at stake.
- Align domestic and global regulations more effectively. In doing so, involve civil society at every stage, reduce the procedural barriers to participation, ensure the representation of marginalised and small states, and ensure that the EU models best practices in its own conduct.
As global politics shift from cooperative multilateralism toward great-power competition, the EU must recalibrate its ambitions for transforming global governance. In a diffuse system increasingly shaped by power asymmetries and transactional bargaining, the EU cannot rely on hard-power leverage like other major actors. It will therefore need to accept pragmatic compromises in the pursuit of its core principles and interests, prioritising influence and outcomes over institutional purity in some policy domains. By implementing these changes, the EU and other like-minded actors can avoid having their principles and interests sacrificed on the altar of great-power politics.
By implementing these changes, the EU and other like-minded actors can avoid having their principles and interests sacrificed on the altar of great-power politics.
The EU has both the opportunity and responsibility to act more decisively to safeguard and strengthen multilateral governance. If significant reforms are neglected, global governance could risk further collapse – and with it, the ability to respond to humanity’s greatest shared challenges.
Citation Recommendation: Blockmans, Steven. 2026. “Beyond Rupture: Strategic Choices for the EU in an Era of Global Disorder.” ENSURED Policy Brief 10 (February): 1–15. https://www.ensuredeurope.eu.
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