The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted in 1992 and in force since 1994, plays a crucial role in global efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The UNFCCC’s main goal is to stabilise “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Its membership is nearly universal – 198 parties: 197 states plus the European Union. To reach the convention’s targets, a sophisticated decision-making structure was set up: the main governing body is the Conference of the Parties (COP), at which all parties meet annually. COP meetings are chaired by the COP Presidency, which rotates among parties from the five UN regions. This means that COPs are hosted in a different location every year. The UNFCCC Secretariat, based in Bonn with 450 staff members, assists the parties, prepares reports, and provides expertise, among other tasks.
The objectives of the UNFCCC were further specified and operationalised during subsequent COPs, in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement sets the goal of holding global temperature increase to “well below 2°C” and pursuing efforts to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." It is implemented mainly through national mitigation and adaptation efforts, formulated within Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
All the parties are expected to submit updated NDCs in 2025. In the same year, COP30 will take place in Belém under the Brazilian Presidency, with the objective of building momentum towards the Paris Agreement’s targets. This is crucial considering that in 2024, the average global temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold for the first time, and parties’ commitments remain insufficiently ambitious. Therefore, despite the parties coming together for the 30th COP, the international community is far from achieving its targets. The question thus arises: Is UNFCCC decision-making up to the challenge of tackling the climate crisis?
To what extent is the UNFCCC decision-making process effective and democratic, and how well does it serve its intended purpose?
Based on qualitative analyses of the literature and interviews with UNFCCC, party, and non-party stakeholders, the report finds that:
- The effectiveness of UNFCCC negotiations is significantly hampered by overloaded agendas and the consensus rule, which often leads to lowest-common-denominator decisions.
- The UNFCCC process allows all parties to be heard, yet asymmetrical power and unequal party participation affect equality between the parties.
- There are tensions between efforts to make UNFCCC decision-making more effective and efforts to make it more democratic.
Overall, the report concludes that the potential for reforming UNFCCC decision-making is limited. It is unlikely that major reform proposals – such as a greater role for non-party stakeholders or a move to majority voting – will obtain consensus. Without trust among the parties and a shared will for reform it is likely that the UNFCCC process will continue without major reforms.
Citation Recommendation: Petri, Franziska and Jan Karlas. 2025. “Climate Negotiations Under Scrutiny: Is UNFCCC Decision-Making up to the Challenge?” ENSURED Research Report, no. 6 (May): 1-39. https://www.ensuredeurope.eu
*This is one of five research reports on global governance published by ENSURED in May 2025. Read the others to learn about WTO reform, vaccine equity and the public health-intellectual property nexus, the UN Human Rights Council, and cyberspace governance.
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